A research professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Olufemi Otubanjo, has warned that Nigeria’s security challenges are being exacerbated by the growing internationalisation of terrorism across the Sahel region, with armed groups and criminal elements displaced from neighbouring countries increasingly finding their way into the country.
Speaking during an interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, on Thursday, Otubanjo said Nigeria’s security landscape has evolved beyond the Boko Haram insurgency into a broader regional crisis involving transnational armed groups operating across porous borders.
According to him, insurgents fleeing conflicts in various parts of Africa, including Sudan, are exploiting Nigeria’s vast territory and governance gaps to establish criminal networks and carry out attacks.
“The problem is that insurgency has become so international. It used to be Boko Haram alone, but it looks like insurgents are running away from different parts of the world, including Sudan. We are beginning to see Sudanese in Nigeria as bandits, coming to kidnap us,” he said.
Otubanjo noted that the absence of effective government presence in some remote areas creates opportunities for criminal groups to infiltrate communities, operate temporarily and evade capture when security forces intervene.
“There are many places that have no presence of government. So, everybody can walk in and take over for a couple of times. And then, of course, at the end of the day, if government intervenes, those people will run away,” he stated.
The professor also linked insecurity in the Sahel to the growing effects of climate change, arguing that environmental degradation, desertification and shrinking economic opportunities have forced many people to migrate in search of survival.
He explained that the destruction of farmlands and communities by advancing desert conditions has displaced large populations, many of whom are moving southward in search of better living conditions.
“We don’t know how much climate change is creating havoc in terms of population and livelihood. A lot of people have lost their homes. They have lost their jobs because the sand dunes have taken over their villages and communities. They are taking over their farms. And they are moving down,” he said.
Otubanjo cautioned against automatically associating migrants from northern regions with terrorism, stressing that many are victims of poverty, unemployment and insecurity rather than participants in criminal activities.
“A lot of the northerners that we see in Lagos, we think that maybe they are terrorists; they are economic migrants. They are running away from hopelessness and joblessness in the north because there is no new investment,” he added.
Despite persistent security concerns, the international relations expert said it would be unfair to suggest that the federal government and security agencies are inactive in addressing the crisis.
“There is a challenge of security in Nigeria. No doubt about it. And we have not overcome it, but that is not to say that the government is not doing what is necessary,” he said.
He argued that defeating terrorism and banditry requires patience, sustained military operations, intelligence gathering and regional cooperation rather than expectations of immediate results.
“The government cannot tell you every day that we killed two or three people today, we are ending the insurgency tomorrow. It’s not done. It’s a process. And the people, of course, are impatient.
“Yes, we don’t want to see kidnapping again. We don’t want to see bandits. But it doesn’t happen like that. It’s a process,” Otubanjo stated.
The professor also paid tribute to members of the armed forces, noting that many soldiers have lost their lives in ongoing efforts to restore peace in troubled regions.
“In summary, let me say that I’m not so sure I can vouch for Tinubu’s record on terrorism, but you know that they are not lying idle. And they are working. Soldiers are dying. And so we must give it to them and pray that they will do better and get us out of this mess,” he said.
Responding to suggestions that strained relations between Nigeria and some military-led governments in the Sahel have contributed to rising insecurity, Otubanjo dismissed the claim, pointing out that countries such as Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso are themselves battling insurgencies on multiple fronts.
He maintained that regional cooperation remains active through multinational security arrangements designed to combat terrorism across the region.
“We have a multinational joint task force that’s supposed to cooperate among countries in the Sahel to fight insurgency. And it’s working,” he said.
On Nigeria’s foreign policy outlook, Otubanjo described diplomacy as one of the country’s greatest strengths, arguing that Nigeria maintains cordial relations with virtually all nations and is not involved in any state-to-state conflict.
He said the country continues to enjoy friendly ties with major global powers despite increasing geopolitical rivalries.
“Nigeria is one of the greatest countries in the world in terms of having no enemies,” he said, adding that occasional disagreements between countries should not be mistaken for hostility.
Highlighting relations with the United States, he said diplomatic differences are normal and do not undermine the broader friendship between the two nations.
“The United States is our friend. Even between wives and husbands, there’s a quarrel once in a while. It doesn’t mean they are enemies,” he stated.
