Archbishop Emeritus of Abuja, John Cardinal Onaiyekan, has warned that Nigeria risks witnessing an even lower voter turnout in the 2027 general elections if citizens believe the outcome has already been decided in favour of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
The Catholic cleric said public confidence in the electoral process must be restored to guarantee meaningful participation in the next general election, stressing that democracy cannot flourish where elections are perceived as neither free nor credible.
Onaiyekan spoke on Monday during an interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM in Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State.
According to him, widespread voter apathy in recent elections reflects growing public distrust in Nigeria’s electoral system, warning that such disillusionment could worsen if Nigerians conclude that the ruling party is certain to retain power regardless of how citizens vote.
“My fear is that if it becomes very clear to Nigerians that no matter what happens, the APC will win, then most people won’t even bother to go to the election. And even if the government, the real power wins, it will not bring a real victory actually. And it is not going to be possible to deliver good government,” he said.
The Cardinal argued that credible elections remain the foundation of effective governance, insisting that the quality of leadership produced by any democracy depends largely on the integrity of its electoral process.
He maintained that elections must be free, fair and transparent if governments are to enjoy genuine legitimacy and public confidence.
“Genuine democracy is built on free and fair elections. Any democracy that cannot do free, fair, and credible election cannot come up with good governance. Elections have consequences. Bad elections lead to bad governance and bad governance leads to misery among the people,” he said.
Onaiyekan further lamented that Nigeria has yet to conduct what he described as a truly free and fair election, adding that many eligible voters now stay away from the polls because they no longer believe their votes can influence the outcome.
He urged the federal government and relevant institutions to rebuild trust in the electoral process before the 2027 elections.
“I think it is in our interest and the government who has all the powers, to please make sure that the trust of the people in the electoral process is restored, so that we can get at least 50 per cent of Nigerians voting. If the electoral field is seen to be fair and equal for everybody, then people will know that their votes will count,” he stated.
Distinguishing military rule and democratic governance, the former archbishop said elected leaders derive their authority from the electorate and must remain accountable through credible elections.
“When we were under military regime, we didn’t talk about elections and the military boys who were ruling us, they didn’t claim to be ruling in our name. Now we are with democracy, and the rulers say that they are ruling in our name. We can’t keep quiet when people claiming to be working in our name are not,” he said.
Onaiyekan also pointed to the United Kingdom as an example of a democracy where the regular alternation of power has strengthened democratic institutions.
He noted that competitive elections and peaceful transfers of power enable governments to remain accountable while giving citizens confidence in the democratic process.
Responding to comments that President Bola Tinubu had defended the neutrality of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the cleric argued that credible elections depend on more than the electoral commission alone.
He said the conduct of security agencies during elections plays a critical role in determining whether polls are perceived as free and fair.
“Even if INEC is neutral, as you know, the election outcome is also affected by the activities and the performance of the security agents who claim to be securing the election, but who often end up intimidating people with sirens all over the place, which doesn’t happen in decent democracies,” he said.
The Cardinal renewed his call for comprehensive electoral reforms, particularly the process for appointing INEC’s leadership.
According to him, allowing the government in power to appoint the leadership of the electoral commission creates concerns about impartiality and weakens public confidence in the institution.
“We know that the government in power appoints the INEC. We have to figure a way out of that because if the government in power appoints the INEC, then it’s difficult to have a fair game, unless you have a very strong chairman of INEC who decides to stand up against all pressures,” he said.
On the forthcoming August 15 Osun State governorship election, Onaiyekan reflected on the peace accord recently facilitated by the National Peace Committee among participating political parties.
While admitting that previous peace agreements had not always prevented election-related violence, he described them as necessary moral commitments that encourage political actors to embrace peaceful conduct.
He also expressed concern over reports of political intimidation and the tense atmosphere surrounding the contest, urging all stakeholders to ensure that voters are allowed to exercise their democratic rights without fear.
“We are only praying and hoping that at least it will allow peace to reign and allow the poor people to do their voting while the politicians will hold their gun and not destroy the whole situation because of their own political ambitions,” he said, adding that politics should remain a platform for public service rather than a struggle for power at all costs.
